BSG Returns - Who's the final Cylon?

Tonight is the much anticipated return of Battlestar Galactica. The show has been on break since June and I have been eagerly awaiting a resolution to the story. When we last saw our friends of the Galactica, they had just arrived at a post-apocalyptic looking Earth and we were still unsure who the final Cylon would turn out to be. What happened to Earth? Who is the last Cylon? What really happened to Kara during her two month gap? These questions and more have been the topic of many discussions at my house, at work, and even within our WoW guild. What are the answers to these questions? Hopefully the writers won't let us down and we will soon have our answers.

Until then, here are a few of my thoughts:

The Final Cylon: When I put together my thoughts on who the final Cylon may be, I am mostly thinking from a a writing perspective—What would I write? I am not the one writing the show, so this makes most of what I am about to say most likely entirely off base, but it's still fun to speculate. There are a lot of possibilities here for who the last Cylon is. Popular opinion has named Lee Adama, Kara Thrace, Gaius Baltar, and Felix Gaeta as the most likely candidates (although there are plenty of theories that include other names as well).

Before talking about each of these characters, I'd like to provide my thoughts on what qualities the final Cylon should have:

1. The final Cylon should be someone that the audience has had time to become attached to. Preferably someone who has been around since the beginning.
2. It should be someone close to those with power (or with power of its own).
3. It needs to be someone that both the viewers and characters would be surprised by (at least to some small degree. With so much analysis going on, it would be hard to be VERY surprised by any revelation).
4. In order to garner a worth reaction from the audience, it must be someone that the audience cares about.
5. It should be someone who is viewed as entirely loyal.
6. It should be someone who is very human (what I mean here is someone who is emotional, makes mistakes, loves, etc.).
7. It just makes sense to me that it would need to be someone without verifiable family connections. If there were more Cylon models, this wouldn't matter; if we are only looking for one, it does. If someone had a child, unless that child was switched at birth (or adopted), it's pretty obvious where they came from.
   

Let's start with Lee Adama: My main reason for ruling Lee out is that he has had direct family connections throughout the series. His father is the only one the audience can verify through current events, but his brother can be verified by his relationship with Kara. If this is the case, then for him to be a Cylon, he would have had to have been switched out with the real Lee at some point. Lee fits every other criterion that I have listed though, so his family connections are the only reason why I think he couldn't be the final Cylon (so the switched at birth theory could still apply).

Kara Thrace: Wow, this one is tough. I really don't know how to rule Kara out. I want to rule her out, because given what has happened over the last half season it just feels too obvious. It screams red herring. At the same time, though, there is a lot that I cannot explain. She fits all of my criteria. They showed her mother in some flash backs, but we have no reason to believe anyone else has ever met her, so these could just be implanted memories. We saw her ship get destroyed last season, and then at the beginning of this season she returns in a brand-spankin'-new Viper. That's clearly very suspicious. I am not sure how to rationalize how she could have escaped death. One of my roommates suggested that she may have had a Flux Capacitor on board and what we really saw was her bursting into another time, but sarcasm aside, as far as we know, her Viper went BOOM! So, in order for her to return, we either didn't see her somehow get out of her Viper and into some other vessel, or she's not the original Kara (She could be a Cylon or a clone—remember, they did steal some of her eggs on Caprica, so it's entirely plausible that the Cylons did create a clone Kara). If she is a clone, that still doesn't explain how she had all of Kara's memories up to her disappearance. It also doesn't explain how she got to Earth in a brand new Viper. If she was a Cylon or a clone, another Cylon had to have deposited her there, and from what we've seen, the Cylons know less about Earth than the humans do. I guess it's possible that the final Cylon knows the location of Earth and deposited her there, but that would require that the final Cylon is someone we have not seen in a while (or at all).

Gaius Baltar: Gaius is another of the "it's too obvious to be him" type. He wants it too badly. He's also not very loyal to anyone but himself (although I think he was given a pretty raw deal in a lot of ways). Self preservation is Gaius's way, and because he is so selfish, I just don't can't see him as the final Cylon. People wouldn't really be surprised, and we'd here the "I knew if! He was such a tool anyway." I think we'd find similar responses if Zarek were the final Cylon (so, I'd also rule him out).

Felix Gaeta: Gaeta fits all of my criteria. He may have made some bad decisions, but his heart was always in the right place. He played a significant role in the resistance on New Caprica (and as we know three other key members of the resistance ended up being Cylons). When he lost his leg I thought, "they wouldn't make the last Cylon a one-legged cripple," but I take that back now. I think that makes him come across as more human and more vulnerable. I would put him in my top two picks. When he was singing in the sick bay, it was eerily familiar to when the other four "spylons" heard the music that brought them together.

Others: My original first pick for the final Cylon was Anastasia "Dee" Dualla. I picked her because she was a very human character. She was who the William Adama confided in. She humanized him to some degree. Someone with this connection William Adama is clearly in a very key position to gather intelligence. She has also been put on the back burner a bit in Season 4. This could be because her character is simply not important to the story, or it could be misdirection so that we aren't focused on her as a possibility. She's very trustworthy, loyal, and closer to the people with power than many. She would have also been the only Cylon on the Pegasus while Lee Adama commanded it and the majority of the survivors were on New Caprica. If she's not the last Cylon, then no one was there to watch Lee (even if only subconsciously). Although she was my first pick, I now have her tied with Gaeta. I am pretty sure it will be one of the two—of course, I am nearly always wrong, so take that for what it's worth (-_^)

Ellen Tigh is dead, as is Cally Tyrol, Billy Keikeya, and Priest Elosha. If it's any of them, I would call that cheating. I really don't want this show to cheat on this, but I guess we shall see soon.

A final point to consider is that Deanna stated that only 4 of the final 5 were within the fleet. This could mean that the final Cylon was already on board their ship (as one of the captives). It could also very easily mean that it's someone who was lost long ago (making those that were dead a distant possibility). However, she could also simply be lying. I don't know that I would take anything she says at face value. Why would she force the other four out of hiding but not be willing to out the fifth? Maybe she didn't see the last face as clearly as she has lead everyone to believe.

Who do you think is the final Cylon? What do you think happened on Earth? Are they returning to a world their ancestors left due to a previous Cylon war ("All this has happened before and will happen again")? So many unanswered questions!